Another midterm election is upon us. Not only are all House Representatives fighting to defend their seats, but one-third of the Senate seats are back on the ballot. Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats hold 47. Twenty-two of those Republican seats are up for reelection, and 13 of the Democrat seats are up for reelection. Here are the tightest Senate battles happening around the country:
The Cook Political Report ranks that, of the 35 seats, 9 are solid Democrat, 1 is likely Democrat, 3 lean Democrat, 3 are toss-ups, 1 leans Republican, 3 are likely Republican, and 15 are solid Republican.
The solid Democrat states are: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
The solid Republican states are: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana , Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming
The only state ranked as a likely Democrat is Minnesota. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minnesota) is retiring, and two Democrats are fighting for the seat. Smith, alongside Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, endorsed Peggy Flanagan to fill the position. Flanagan is a transgender activist who, though she identifies as Catholic, sparked controversy for wearing a hijab around Minneapolis. Her party rival, Rep. Angie Craig, is running a more moderate-focused campaign. There is not yet a clear GOP frontrunner, but candidates include NBC sports reporter Michele Tafoya, former basketball player Royce White, Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, and former Minnesota GOP Chair David Hann.
The three likely Republican states are Iowa, Nebraska, and Texas. Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement leaves an open Iowa seat for the first time in 12 years. Rep. Ashley Hinson entered the race and gained GOP and pro-life support. There is not yet a clear frontrunner for the Democrat candidate. In Nebraska, incumbent Pete Ricketts will take on Democrat Cindy Burbank, but rumors say she will drop her bid to shift more support to independent candidate Dan Osborne. Osborne ran in 2024 and lost by 7 points. Texas is home to the most expensive Senate primary race in history between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General, and Trump-endorsed, Ken Paxton. The winner will take on Democrat James Talarico. Though Texas is known as a deep red state, a few high-power districts keep it slightly vulnerable.
Three states lean Democrat: Georgia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. A very high-profile race is happening in Georgia as Republicans seek to unseat incumbent Jon Ossoff. Rumor’s swell about Ossoff running for president, as he rises in the ranks of the Democrat Party. Meanwhile, two Republican candidates face a run-off for the bid. Rep. Mike Collins is famous in the halls of Congress for sarcastic X posts and comedic memes. He has held a strong border focus as the sponsor of the Laken Riley Act and carries a strong pro-life record. He won first place in the primary but was closely followed by Derek Dooley. Dooley is a former football coach who sprang to political action after COVID. He is seen campaigning with Gov. Kemp and promising to fight government corruption.
North Carolina candidates include former Governor Roy Cooper and former RNC Chair Michael Whatley. Cooper was an early activist on transgender issues, fighting to repeal the “bathroom bill” in Georgia, and vetoing several other transgender related bills. Michael Whatley has been quick to draw attention to this issue, as the infamous Lia Thomas controversy happened on Georgia soil. Whatley is running a Trump-forward campaign focused on border security and energy independence.
Chris Pappas was the first openly gay person to represent New Hampshire and is now hoping to take his service to the Senate. He is focused on social liberal issues, such as LGBTQ advocacy and abortion, and has earned an endorsement from Planned Parenthood Action Fund. While he campaigns, there is infighting among Republicans between Scott Brown and former Senator John Sununu, who lost his reelection in 2008.
The only state leaning Republican is Alaska, where voters appear most concerned about rising prices. Former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola is running for the Democrats against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.
There are currently three true toss-ups in the 2026 midterms: Ohio, Michigan, and Maine.
Maine has historically been a razor-thin state. Incumbent Republican Susan Collins has pulled out the win before. She is focused on healthcare, social security, and the economy. She also boasts several wins from her time in the Senate that benefit local farmers. The Democrat frontrunner is Graham Planter, who is endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Ruben Gallego, and Elizabeth Warren. He has run several attack ads against Collins and boasts he will fight to bring back Roe v. Wade, end “forever wars,” and stand up to billionaires.
Michigan Democrats are split between Abdul El-Sayed, a Sanders-endorsed candidate campaigning for the young progressive vote, and Haley Stevens, who has gained more traditional Democratic Party support. Republicans have rallied behind former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, who is focused on extremism on the left.
Former Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is looking to head back to the Upper Chamber to represent Ohio. Brown claims a “populist” focus and voted to extend the Equal Rights Amendment timeline and other LGBTQ/abortion expansions while in the Senate. His opponent is former Ohio Lieutenant Governor John Husted, who was appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s seat
While the Senate races continue to capture national attention, we urge you to learn more about other races happening in your area. To see more information about your candidates, election calendar, and registration status, visit https://concernedwomen.org/she-prays-she-votes/.
We will continue to monitor the election and post regular updates to our website. In the meantime, make your voice heard! Use your vote wisely to promote your values and build a legacy of which you can be proud.
