The engine of Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee’s (CWALAC) Big Pink Bus has barely cooled down from the 2024 election cycle, and the races are already heating up again. With redistricting battles playing out from coast to coast, state and local elections opening their ballot boxes again this fall, and the House members looking at another razor-thin election, here’s what we know about next year’s midterm election that will decide the new House of Representatives:
The GOP is expected to hold onto the Senate, so eyes turn to the Lower Chamber, where history says they are fighting an uphill battle; since 1938, the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections. With an already historically slim majority, it would only be a three-seat swap for Democrats to take control.
However, Democrat leaders are doubling down on a radical agenda that seems to be losing public support. Over the weekend, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York 8th) endorsed self-proclaimed socialist Zohran Mamdani. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana 4th) said this endorsement marks “the end of the Democratic party as we’ve known it,” citing Mamdani as a Hamas sympathizer who “has openly embraced antisemitic language.” He is a Marxist who has called to seize the means of production, seeks to legalize prostitution, and more.
However, Mamdani’s communist-like messages aren’t resonating with the American people, even with a considerable portion of his liberal home city of New York. More than one in four New Yorkers responded to a poll suggesting they’d flee the city if Mamdani took control. But this is where Leader Jeffries, the current Democrat leader responsible for winning the House next fall, has planted his stake. Jeffries knows how radical Mamdani is and had withheld endorsement for some time. But he eventually catered to the radical, far-left demands of high-dollar (and some would suggest, foreign) influences within his base.
That is a trend the Democratic Party has chosen to embrace, though many are fighting back. Even now, as they keep the government shut down as leverage, while families are losing access to SNAP (and likely WIC), our military service members are defending our country without pay, and voters feel the economic strain more and more by the day.
All of these factors will play significant roles in next year’s midterms. Here are the states where we suspect the most action:
Arizona
Democrats are once again targeting three districts in the Grand Canyon State: the first district, which Republicans flipped in 2022; the second district, home to House Freedom Caucus member Eli Crane who flipped the seat in President Biden’s midterm; and the sixth district, who Representative Juan Ciscomani currently represents. Cook’s Political Report currently lists both the first and sixth districts as toss-ups.
California
California holds five Congressional districts that Republicans aim to flip in 2026: The ninth district, currently represented by Josh Harder; the thirteenth, a toss-up district that is home to the infamous Christian school whose women’s volleyball team kept forfeiting games against trans-identifying men; the twenty-seventh district, where the Democrats flipped a seat in the 2024 election; the forty-fifth, another toss-up that was decided by less than 1,000 votes in the prior election. The Democrats also have their eyes set on the West Coast, noting that CA-22, 40, and 41 are all “Districts in Play,” and Cooks lists them as “leans Republican.”
Iowa
Iowa’s first congressional district made headlines in the 2020 election when the final winner came down to only six votes. It remains a ruthless toss-up, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has it back as a target again this year. Current Iowa-1st representative, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, is a staunch pro-life conservative. The DCCC also has its eyes pinned on two of the other three Iowans in Congress, hoping to flip both the second and third districts as well.
Nevada
Republicans are hoping to flip an additional three seats (1st, 3rd, 4th) in Nevada, a state President Trump decidedly flipped in the 2024 Presidential Election, primarily campaigning on his “No Tax on Tips” promise that he delivered in the Working Families Tax Cut earlier this year. Republicans already hold the second district and are now aiming for a clean sweep of the state.
Ohio and Pennsylvania
Republicans have gained significant momentum with working-class voters, particularly in the Rust Belt, which has given them several seats and led to up to a 21% swing since 2012 in some districts. The DCCC is hoping to reverse the trend by winning back Ohio – 7, 10, 5, and Pennsylvania – 1, 7, 8, 10. Republicans are also hoping to gain ground with Ohio’s ninth and thirteenth districts which are both currently toss-ups.
We’re still over a year away from the midterm elections, but the ground game and messaging battles have already begun. Republicans must win public opinion of the Working Families Tax Cut (“The One Big Beautiful Bill”), and Democrats must shift the blame for the government shutdown. During the shutdown, most of the House members are back in their home districts doing just that.
Several noteworthy elections are also happening in the states, including the Virginia Gubernatorial election between Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Abigail Spanberger (D). These state races often set a tone and provide nationwide insight into the health of political parties. Virginia is also home to two DCCC targets (01 and 02) and one National Republican Congressional Committee target (07) in the midterms.
Concerned Women for America LAC members have been hard at work encouraging Biblically grounded civil engagement in state-level actions, and we’re ready and eager to see more representatives who stand for life, families, and Biblical values elected to Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
