Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives with 220 seats to the Democrat’s 212 seats. It will take a mere five seats flipped to secure a Democrat House for the 119th Congress. With dozens of races still razor thin, here are the closest districts to watch next week:
Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) defeated former Governor Sarah Palin in a 2022 special election for Alaska’s only House seat. Until then, Republicans had held the seat since 1972. Alaska’s rank-choice voting system places four candidates on the ballot: incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska-01), Eric Hafner (D), Nicholas Begich (R), and John Howe (I). The district is listed as a National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) 2024 Target District.
Arizona: Two Arizona seats currently represented by Republicans in Congress are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) 2024 Target Districts. Arizona’s First Congressional District flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2022, coming down to 3,200 votes. The district voted for former President Trump in 2020, but the new 2022 legislative maps would have switched the majority to voting for President Biden. Republican incumbent David Schweikert will face Amish Shah (D). Arizona’s Sixth District also came down to a few thousand votes in 2022, and the candidates will face a rematch on Tuesday. Kirsten Engel hopes to unseat incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Arizona-06).
California: There are several very close races on the West Coast in California. Because of California ballot procedures, these races may leave the House majority undecided for several days. Among these are three rematches; California-13, California-22, and California-41. The Thirteenth Congressional District is a tight battle between Republican incumbent Rep. John Duarte and Adam Gray (D). Rep. Duarte won by 564 votes in 2022. Rep. David Valadao was one of only 14 Republicans to win a district taken by Joe Biden in 2020 with his victory in California-22 in 2022. He will face another tight race against Rudy Salas, a former member of the California Assembly. Both candidates are appealing to the agricultural communities within the district. Republican Rep. Mike Garcia from the 27th District also won one of President Biden’s districts in 2020 and faces a new challenge against former NASA Chief of Staff George Whitesides. California’s 41st District also holds a 2022 rematch between Rep. Ken Calvert and Will Rollins. Voters decided the race with a five-point margin in 2022.
Colorado: 2020 Redistricting opened a new Eighth District of Colorado. Gabe Evans (R) is in a close race against incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D).
Connecticut: The Fifth Congressional District of Connecticut housed a razor thin race in 2022 between Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) and George Logan (R). Hayes won the seat with a close 50.4% majority. The two will face off again in what many expect to be another close call.
Iowa: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) from Iowa’s First is facing heat from her Democrat opponent on her fight for pre-born protections. Christina Bohannan is challenging Miller-Meeks to a rematch for the seat.
Maine: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine-02) faces former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault in the Second District’s House race. The district has voted for Trump twice, has received a visit from Speaker Johnson, and is a NRCC 2024 target.
Michigan: Both the DCCC and the NRCC have noted Michigan-07 as a 2024 target. With Elissa Slotkin (D) leaving to race for the Senate, Curtis Hertel (D) and Tom Barrett (R) are running for the newly opened seat. The District has voted for both Trump and Biden by less than one percentage point. Another seat is opening in the Eighth District, and Kristen McDonald (D) and Paul Junge (R) are both making a play for the tight swing district. Trump won the district in 2020 with 49.6%; Biden followed closely behind with 48.8% of the popular vote. The DCCC is targeting another rematch in Michigan over in the Tenth District. Rep. John James (R) is facing his former opponent Carl Marlinga (D). He won with a narrow margin in the last race with 48.8% of votes to Marlinga’s 48.3%.
Nebraska: Rep. Don Bacon (R) will rematch Tony Vargas (D) for the Second District’s seat in the House. Rep. Bacon won the prior race by 6,000 votes, placing this year’s race as a DCCC target.
New Mexico: Yvette Herrell (R) is again running against Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-New Mexico-02). The 2022 race came down to 1,300 votes, and many predict the rematch will again land very close.
Nevada: NRCC targeted Nevada’s First Congressional District, and the DCCC named Rep. Dina Titus (D) a “frontline candidate.” Titus will rematch Mark Robertson (R) who has focused his campaign on the crisis at the border, budget, and education.
New York: The Big Apple State is home to several notable races this season, including New York-04, New York-17, and New York-19. In the Fourth District, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) will face Democrat opponent Laura Gillen. Democrats hope to flip the vulnerable seat in a critical play towards majority. Incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler won a surprising race in 2022, unseating his democrat opponent after redistricting. Mondaire Jones (D) is hoping to flip the seat once again. Marc Molinaro (R-New York-19) is running again on moderacy in what was deemed one of the most expensive House races early in the election. He will rematch Josh Riley (D), whom he beat by 4,500 votes in 2022.
Oregon: Oregon’s Fifth Congressional District continues to stay tight as Janelle Bynum (D) tries to unseat incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R). The two have faced off twice before in state races with Bynum coming out on top.
Pennsylvania: Three incumbents find themselves in close races in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Both Presidential candidates have placed a strong focus on the state which could influence voter turnout for these lower ballot races. Democrat incumbent Susan Wild is in a touch race marked as an NRCC target. Ryan Mackenzie (R) is challenging in a tough district won by President Biden in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote. Rep. Matthew Cartwright (D) is also in a NRCC target District in Pennsylvania-08, which Trump won with 51.4% of the vote in 2020. Rep. Scott Perry (R) is the former Chairman of the Freedom Caucus, representing Pennsylvania-10. DCCC is hoping to challenge the six term Representative with a recent Democrat-convert Janelle Stelson (D). Five former Republican Representatives have endorsed Stelson.
Virginia: Eugene Vindman (D), a whistleblower who became the basis for the Trump impeachment, is running in Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District. The seat is newly vacated by Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat candidate for Virginia Governor.
Washington: The Third Congressional District’s 2022 House election came down to less than one percentage point, falling on the side of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D). Derrick Anderson (R) is challenging Gluesenkamp Perez to a rematch, hitting her 2023 comments that “nobody stays awake at night worrying about the Southern Border.”
A CNN article noted a historic moment if the House flipped to Democrat control and the Senate flipped to Republican control this election: “It would be the first time in over 230 years of congressional elections that the two chambers of Congress changed partisan control in the opposite direction.” These races and more could fall either direction, the House majority will remain a battle until the very end.
We remain to watch vigilantly as Americans take to the ballot box and vote their values. Check back with us for more insights on the 2024 election at ConcernedWomen.org.