Unmarried Women are Key to 2014 Election Results

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Stanley Greenberg’s latest article on the Politico website reveals the importance of unmarried women to election outcomes. What is of special interest is that the priorities for unmarried women, as shown in Greenberg’s polls, correspond with amazing accuracy with the radical left agenda.

Greenberg rehashes the facts about election outcomes (that I have written about several times over the past couple of election cycles): In the past, unmarried women have been a reliable vote for leftist politicians and married women vote decidedly for conservative candidates. Greenberg cited the well-known voting demographics: (1) About a quarter of the presidential-year electorate has been unmarried women. (2) Three-fourths of the conservative GOP base are married and nearly 60 percent of those who call themselves Republicans are married. (3) Two-thirds of unmarried women voted for President Obama and Congressional Democrats in 2012. Further two-thirds of those who voted for Terry McAuliffe for Virginia governor in 2013 were unmarried women.

Now, with so many economic and unemployment problems, unmarried women are not a certain vote for the Democratic Party. In fact, Greenberg’s polls indicate that only two-thirds of the unmarried women who voted in 2012 are a “certain” vote in November; in fact, 10.5 million unmarried women who voted in 2012 are projected to stay home in November. Worse, Greenberg’s latest poll done for NPR – conducted jointly by Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic – show the Democrats being ahead by merely 1 point in the generic congressional ballot (44 to 43 percent). The unmarried women’s vote is high – 58 percent – but that is “nearly 10 points below” the typical unmarried women’s vote in a presidential election.

Interestingly, Greenberg bluntly states the reality that is glossed over by many Democratic partisans: “For most Americans, the economy is a challenge every day. It’s a challenge at the grocery store, the day care and the gas pump. It’s a challenge to pay rent, afford education or take time off for work to care for sick children. In focus groups our participants tell us that jobs don’t pay enough anymore so they have multiple jobs to make up the difference. Or they save money by sharing intergenerational housing (i.e. living with their parents, a trend that became increasingly uncommon through the twentieth century and now has become much more common again). They make big cuts at the grocery store. They postpone retirement—or work in post-retirement jobs.”

Greenberg also bluntly states the facts facing unmarried women: Their median income is just $23,000 and “82 percent do not have a college degree.” According to Greenberg, those facts guarantee certain themes will predominate in the 2014 elections.

(1) We will continue to hear “equal pay” distortions and repeats of the disproven figure of women making 77 cents on the dollar.
(2) We will see more and more emphasis on working moms and their needs.
(3) We will hear more about the need for an increased minimum wage.
(4) We will hear more about benefits – especially Medicare and Social Security.

As he notes, these themes work with unmarried women; they will help to increase the unmarried women vote and the likelihood that those unmarried women will vote for the Democratic Party. Greenberg says that his polls show dramatic increases in intent to vote and determination to vote Democrat when these agenda items are repeated.

This is a companion to Dr. Crouse’s article, “Can Election 2014 Put the Nation Back on Track?” published in American Thinker.